Evaluation's Journey towards the Future, Part 5. The Liminal space of Not-Yet Futures

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Mention 'polycrisis', and people's eyes glaze over - intimidated by its complexity and a sense of powerlessness.

What if, instead, we consider what it means to be in a liminal space?

The space where old systems fade and new worlds stir?

Where we have to dance with uncertainty?

Where multiple futures are possible?

The space between what was and what will be; between the 'no-longer' and the 'not-yet'?

Being in a liminal space

I love the notion of a 'liminal space'. It comes from the Latin limen, meaning 'threshold'. A threshold is not a destination. It is a place 'between', a boundary between two spaces or states of being. It implies a moment of crossing, of transition.

Imagine walking across a bridge suspended over a chasm. The ground beneath feels unstable. Behind lies the known, the familiar, the environment that shaped us. What is ahead is uncertain - a landscape we do not know, perhaps not yet formed. The bridge is a threshold. It connects, but does not belong to either side. It is not a place of rest, only of movement, perhaps with an occasional pause to consider the unsettling awareness that we are no longer where we were, and not yet where we have to go.

Or imagine a cocoon. It is a liminal chamber, a space where the old dissolves and the new begins to take shape. The caterpillar enters whole, but in the cocoon it unravels, becomes unrecognisable, and only then re-forms into something entirely new. The butterfly does not emerge improved. It emerges transformed.

The bridge demands trust in motion, balance amid ambiguity, and faith in what lies ahead. Some of us hesitate, clinging to our old environment; others have already moved further, such as the communities and professionals working on the frontline of climate change. In the cocoon, inner transformation is essential, the process of change is non-linear and messy, and something new emerges only after full release of the old.

We are in a liminal space. In the threshold between worlds, where systems and societies hang suspended - between what was and what is becoming.

Things are not what they were, and not yet what they will become. Old structures, values and norms are dissolving or no longer effective, but new ones still have to crystallise. There is heightened uncertainty and fluidity. We are in the process of transitioning from one stable state to another, to a transformed world.

It is here, between what was and what might be, that the seeds of the transformations we want can best take root.

We see the signs all around us.

Visions for the future compete - notions of transformative development (especially in the Global South), limits to growth or degrowth (if our planet is to survive), and techno-optimism (technology will solve all). Old extractive models are competing with regenerative alternatives. But none has as yet fully emerged.

Climate collapse is disrupting familiar seasons and economies, neither following historical patterns nor having settled into new stable states.

Economic systems are experiencing fundamental tensions between growth-based models and planetary boundaries, without clear resolution.

In the most prosperous parts of the world, social structures around work, community and meaning are fragmenting, without new widely accepted frameworks or models in place.

Institutional legitimacy is fraying across national and global governance systems, with nothing yet emerging to replace them.

AI is transforming labour, cognition and ethics faster than policies can adapt, and we do not know where and how this may end.

This is the time to make change happen

This liminal age is a time of dissolution, of uncertainty and disorientation. It can be chaotic, dangerous and destructive when systems fail to adapt and break down, or when they re-stabilise to oppressive old norms. Liminality does not necessarily lead to positive transformation or 'higher' states of being. There are many instances of failed transitions where individuals, groups or societies become 'stuck' in liminal states, or regress to previous conditions.

But this time can also very creative. We are standing in the threshold between the old and the new - exposed and uncertain, yet full of choice and creative possibility. Liminal spaces are characterised by heightened potential that can lead to breakthroughs, or lateral movements. We can take transformational leaps where new, more adaptive and regenerative systems emerge.

This is where we are now.

This is the liminal space where the transformations that we want become possible - if we listen, hold space for learning, collaboration and experimentation, and act wisely.

What does this mean for evaluation as field and as practice?